Post-Primary Analysis: Women in 2024 State Level Elections

Earlier this year, I laid out where things stood for women in 2024 state level elections, including state legislative and statewide elective executive contests. I outlined the gender and partisan disparities in women’s state legislative candidacies, as well as the potential to pick up at least one gubernatorial seat this year. In a separate analysis, I showed that Republican women incumbents were losing primary contests at higher rates than Democratic women and in greater numbers than in recent history. Now that all primaries have been held, we can provide a clearer picture of women’s representation and success as state level candidates and nominees, as well as prospects for women in statewide executive office for 2025.

Among the major findings are:

• The numbers of Democratic women state House and Senate nominees are up from 2022 to 2024 in matched states, while the number of Republican women nominees are down. This is a reverse of the party-specific trends from 2020 to 2022.
• While women are at or near parity with men among Democratic state House and Senate nominees in 2024, gender parity remains elusive among Republican nominees.
• While rates do not vary widely across groups, Democratic women candidates won state House and Senate primaries at the highest rate of any gender by party subgroup, including winning open-seat nominations at a higher rate than Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men. Democratic women candidates also outperformed each of these groups in 2024 gubernatorial primaries. 
• Both the raw number and proportion of women major-party nominees for governor are up from 2020 to 2024.
• Women will increase their gubernatorial representation by at least one as a result of the 2024 election to reach a new record high.  

STATE HOUSE

The number of women state House nominees is up from 2022 to 2024 in states holding House elections in both years, but the increase is due to Democratic women only. This trend is opposite that of 2022, when Republican women state House nominees were up and Democratic women state House nominees were down from the previous cycle.

There are 43 states holding state House elections in 2024, down from the 45 state Houses that were up for election in 2022. To account for that difference, I include only the 43 states where House elections were held in both years in the data comparisons here. [1]

As of September 25, 2861 (1891D, 966R, 2I, 2NP) women are nominees for state House in 2024, a 3.7% increase from the number of women state House nominees in the same states in 2022. However, this increase is fueled entirely by Democratic women; the number of Democratic women state House nominees is up by 7.6% from 2022 to 2024 while the number of Republican women state House nominees is down by 3.1%. This is consistent with trends at the pre-primary stage, where Democratic women were the only group at the intersection of gender and party that saw a rise in candidates from 2022 to 2024. The 2024 counts will likely change before Election Day due to ballot adjustments, but the overall trend is likely to remain the same. 

This trend is the reverse of what we saw from 2020 to 2022, when the number of Republican women state House nominees across matched states increased by 11.5% from 2020 while the number of Democratic women state House nominees dropped by 6.4%. 

When including all contests in each year regardless of the disparities among them, the current 2024 counts fall below record highs for all women state House nominees (2881, set in 2022), as well as for Democratic (1947, set in 2018) and Republican (1041, set in 2022) women nominees. 

Importantly, trends vary by state. As of September 25, the number of women state House nominees is down in 16 states, level in four states, and up in 22 states from 2022 to 2023. I have removed North Dakota from these comparisons because fewer state House seats are up in 2024 than in 2022. When disaggregated by party, the number of Democratic women state House nominees is down in 12 states, level in one state, and up in 29 states. The number of Republican women state House nominees is down in 19 states, level in four states, and up in 19 states. 

While the number of candidates who decide to file for office is more directly influenced by political environments and opportunity, the number of nominees – those who advance to the general election ballot – is less variable from cycle to cycle. Thus, the change in number of women nominees is more likely to alter women’s representation among all nominees (regardless of gender) in 2024.

For state-by-state histories on the number of women state legislative nominees and winners (by party), see CAWP's historical state-by-state summary.

While women are at near parity with men among Democratic state House nominees in 2024, gender parity remains elusive among Republican state House nominees.

As of September 25, women are 49.8% of Democratic and 25.4% of Republican state House nominees. This partisan disparity among the women who will appear on general election ballots is consistent with existing disparities in women’s state House representation by party, both within states and nationwide. Today, women are 49.7% of Democratic and 21.3% of Republican state House officeholders. In fact, Democratic women are at or above parity with Democratic men in 30 of 49 state House chambers. In contrast, there are no state House chambers where Republican women match or exceed the representation of Republican men.

When broken down by state and party, women are 50% or more of state House Democratic nominees in 20 of 43 states holding state House elections in 2024. Women’s representation among Democratic state House nominees ranges from a low of 32.9% (SC) to a high of 71.7% (NM). Women’s representation among Republican state House nominees ranges from a low of 12.4% (OK and WV) to a high of 47.2% (NV). In no states are women 50% or more of Republican state House nominees. 

While rates do not vary widely across groups, Democratic women candidates won state House primaries at the highest rate of any gender by party subgroup, including winning open-seat nominations at a higher rate than Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men. 

The win rate for state House candidates does not vary widely across gender or party in 2024. However, while 87.4% of Democratic women state House candidates won their primary contests, 80.3% of Democratic men, 77.4% of Republican women, and 79% of Republican men did the same. 

Among candidates for open state House seats, Democratic women’s win rate (72.5%) again outpaces Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men. About 65% of Republican women open-seat candidates were successful, greater than Republican (61.5%) and Democratic (60.9%) men. 

Consistent with my earlier analysis citing Republican women incumbents’ hurdles to primary success, Republican women state House incumbents won primary contests at a rate (94.1%) slightly lower than Democratic women (98.8%), Democratic men (98.1%), and Republican men (95.7%). They are slightly over-represented among Republican state House incumbents who lost primary contests in 2024. However, Republican women are also over-represented among successful challengers to incumbents in 2024 primary contests. Democratic women are under-represented among Democratic state House incumbents who were defeated in 2024 primaries and over-represented among successful challengers to incumbents. 

Notably, of the 17 Democratic men state House incumbents who lost primary contests, 11 (64.7%) were defeated by Democratic women. The same disparity is not evident among Republicans, where 21 of 72 (29.2%) Republican men incumbents were defeated by Republican women.

STATE SENATE

The total number of women state Senate nominees in 2024 is below the record high, both overall and within each major political party. Across only states with the same number of seats up in each cycle, the numbers of Democratic women nominees is up and Republican women nominees is down from 2022 to 2024, a contrast to the partisan trends from the previous cycle.

As of September 25, 624 (415D, 192R, 17NP) women are nominees for state Senate in 2024. This is below the record high, overall (740, set in 2022) or for women in the Democratic (473, set in 2022) and Republican (250, set in 2022) Party. [2]

There are 42 states holding regular-cycle state Senate elections in 2024. However, the number of state Senate seats up for election varies within and across states in each election year. To allow for comparison across years, I analyzed only the 30 states where the same number of state Senate seats were up in 2020, 2022, and 2024. [3]

When looking at this select group of states, the number of women state Senate nominees are virtually level from 2022 to 2024. However, party differences persist. The number of Democratic women state Senate nominees is up by 5% from 2022 to 2024 while the number of Republican women state Senate nominees is down by 8.8% in the 30 matched states. While the 2024 counts will likely change before Election Day due to ballot adjustments, the overall trend is likely to remain the same. 

This trend is the reverse of what we saw from 2020 to 2022 in the same states, when the number of Republican women state Senate nominees increased by 23.3% from 2020 while the number of Democratic women state Senate nominees dropped by 4.5%. 

For state-by-state histories on the number of women state legislative nominees and winners (by party), see CAWP's historical state-by-state summary.

While women are at near parity with men among Democratic state Senate nominees in 2024, gender parity remains elusive among Republican state Senate nominees.

As of September 25, women are 47.6% of Democratic and 21.8% of Republican state Senate nominees. This partisan disparity among the women who will appear on general election ballots is consistent with existing disparities in women’s state Senate representation by party, both within states and nationwide. Today, women are 46% of Democratic and 17.9% of Republican state Senate officeholders. In fact, Democratic women are at or above parity with Democratic men in 24 of 50 state Senate chambers. In contrast, there is just one state Senate chamber where Republican women match or exceed the representation of Republican men.[4]

When broken down by state and party, women are 50% or more of state Senate Democratic nominees in 19 of 41 states holding regular-cycle, partisan state Senate elections in 2024. [5] Women’s representation among Democratic state Senate nominees ranges from a low of 22.2% (WV) to a high of 100% (AR). Women’s representation among Republican state Senate nominees ranges from a low of 0% (KY and MO) to a high of 46.7% (IL). In no states are women 50% or more of Republican state Senate nominees. 

While values do not vary widely across groups, Democratic women candidates won state Senate primaries at the highest rate of any gender by party subgroup, including winning open-seat nominations at a higher rate than Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men. 

As with state House findings, the win rate for state Senate candidates does not vary widely across gender or party in 2024. However, while 83.3% of Democratic women state Senate candidates won their primary contests, 79.3% of Democratic men, 69.6% of Republican women, and 75.1% of Republican men did the same. 

Among candidates for open state Senate seats, Democratic women’s win rate (65.4%) again outpaces Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men. Just under 57% of Republican women open-seat candidates were successful, slightly fewer than Republican (59.5%) and Democratic (59.6%) men. 

Republican women state Senate incumbents won primary contests at a lower rate (87.5%) than Democratic women (99.5%), Democratic men (97.7%), and Republican men (94.5%). They are over-represented among Republican state Senate incumbents who lost primary contests in 2024. Democratic women are under-represented among Democratic state Senate incumbents who were defeated in 2024 primaries, and they are over-represented among successful challengers to incumbents. The only Democratic woman state Senate incumbent who lost her primary contest was defeated by another woman.

Notably, of the five Democratic men state House incumbents who lost primary contests, three (60%) were defeated by Democratic women. The same disparity is not evident among Republicans, where three of 21 (14.3%) Republican men incumbents were defeated by Republican women.

GOVERNOR

Both the raw number and proportion of women major-party nominees for governor are up from 2020 to 2024.

There are 11 gubernatorial elections in 2024, matching the states who held gubernatorial contests in 2020. Both the numbers of major-party women candidates and nominees for governor are greater in 2024 than in 2020. As of September 25, 5 (4D, 1R) women are nominees for governor in 2024, up from 3 (2D, 1R) in 2020. Notably, there are eight open-seat contests in 2024, compared to just  four years ago. No incumbent women governors are up for election this year. 

Those increases in numbers of both candidates and nominees are concentrated among Democratic women; the number of Republican women gubernatorial candidates and nominees in 2024 matches 2020 counts.

Women are five of 22 (22.7%) of gubernatorial nominees in 2024, greater than their 12.5% of nominations in 2020 but less than the 34.2% of nominations in 2022, a year when 36 gubernatorial contests were held. In 2024, women are 36.4% of Democratic and 9.1% of Republican women nominees for governor. 

While candidate numbers are small, Democratic women candidates won gubernatorial primaries at the highest rate of any gender by party subgroup, including winning open-seat nominations at a higher rate than Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men. 

The win rate for major-party gubernatorial candidates does not vary widely across gender or party in 2024. However, while 40% of Democratic women gubernatorial candidates won their primary contests, 30.4% of Democratic men, 14.3% of Republican women, and 22.7% of Republican men did the same. 

Among candidates for open gubernatorial seats, Democratic women’s win rate (33.3%) again outpaces Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men. Republican women had the lowest win rate (16.7%) among open-seat gubernatorial candidates. However, the sole open-seat Republican woman nominee – former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) – is one of two women nominees (with former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig [D]) in the only gubernatorial contest likely to yield a woman winner in 2024.  

Women will increase their gubernatorial representation by at least one as a result of the 2024 election to reach a new record high.  

A record 12 (8D, 4R) women currently serve as governor in the United States. No incumbent women governors are up for re-election this year, meaning that they will hold their offices through 2025. As noted above, a woman is all but guaranteed to win New Hampshire’s toss-up contest between former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), bringing the count of women governors to at least 13 of 50 (26%). Three (2D, 1R) women have served as New Hampshire’s governor, including two (2D) – Maggie Hassan (D) and Jeanne Shaheen (D) – who also served in the U.S. Senate. 

In addition, Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan (D) will ascend to the governorship if the Harris-Walz ticket is successful in their presidential bid. If that happens, Flanagan will make history as the first Native American woman governor in the U.S. and the first woman governor of Minnesota. She would also bring the number of women governors up to 14 of 50 (28%). 

OTHER STATEWIDE EXECUTIVE OFFICE CONTESTS TO WATCH

In addition to the potential to make history at the gubernatorial level, the following women have the potential to achieve notable milestones in statewide elective executive offices as a result of the 2024 elections. 

• North Carolina: If elected, Natasha Marcus (D) would be the first woman to serve as commissioner of insurance in North Carolina. She is running as a challenger.
• Oregon: If elected, Elizabeth Steiner (D) would be the first woman to serve as treasurer in Oregon. She is running for an open seat. 
• Utah: If elected, Catherine Voutaz (D) or Tina Cannon (R) will become the first woman to serve as state auditor of Utah.
• Washington: 
  • If elected, Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) would be the first Latina to serve as public lands commissioner in Washington. She is running for an open seat.
  • If elected, Sharon Hanek (R) would be the first Asian American/Pacific Islander to serve as treasurer of Washington. She is running as a challenger.
• West Virginia:
  • If elected, Mary Ann Claytor (D) would be the first Black woman to serve as auditor and the first Black woman to be elected statewide in West Virginia. She is running for an open seat.
  • If elected, Deborah Stiles (D) would be the first woman to serve as commissioner of agriculture in West Virginia. She is running as a challenger.
  • If elected, Teresa Toriseva (D) would be the first woman to serve as attorney general in West Virginia. She is running for an open seat.

For the latest data on women candidates in Election 2024, see CAWP's Election Watch resources. And for more on gender in the presidential contest, see Presidential Watch 2024. 

Notes

[1] North Dakota is the only state holding state House elections in both years where the number of House seats up for election differs; 66 state House seats were contested in 2022 due in part to the enactment of term limits, greater than the 48 state House seats contested in 2024. This means that the total number of state House seats being contested in 2024 (4714), is slightly lower than the number of state House seats being contested in the same 43 states in 2022 (4732). When North Dakota is removed from these analyses, the trends reported here do not change in any significant way.  

[2] This count includes special election nominees in Minnesota, where there are no regular cycle state Senate elections in 2024. 

[3] Here I include states where there was a variance of up to one senate seat up for election across the 2020, 2022, and 2024 cycles. 

[4]While Nebraska is a nonpartisan legislature, publicly-shared party affiliation of members is used for these calculations.

[5] Nebraska’s state legislative candidates run in nonpartisan elections.