Expert Insights: Lead-Up to Election Day
CAWP has called on gender and politics experts in previous election cycles to contribute their thoughts on campaign themes and dynamics. Again in election 2024, we invited over fifty scholars and practitioners to share their research and practice-based insights on gender and intersectional dynamics in this year’s elections. Their expertise should inform the national political dialogue and encourage new and nuanced conversations in the final months of both the presidential and down ballot campaigns.
This month, we invited experts to respond briefly to the following question in the lead-up to Election Day:
- When anticipating Election Day and its aftermath, what should we be attentive to in best understanding the lead-up to, results of, and impact of the election through gender and intersectional lenses? Please feel free to offer insights at or below the presidential level to consider these dynamics across levels of office.
Their responses are below.
As organizers, candidates, and voters, Black women are once again a decisive force, pushing for a more just, inclusive, and representative democracy this cycle.
Glynda Carr
President and CEO, Higher Heights
Black women have played an essential role in the 2024 election, driving political engagement and shaping key conversations. As the architects of American democracy, Black women are reliable voters, pivotal organizers, mobilizers, and candidates committed to fostering change in our communities.
With a deep commitment to issues like economic equity, healthcare access, reproductive justice, and criminal justice reform, Black women are advocating for policies that address the needs of our communities and broader society. This year, we are also on the front lines combating voter suppression, misinformation, and disinformation disproportionately targeting Black communities. As organizers, candidates, and voters, Black women are once again a decisive force, pushing for a more just, inclusive, and representative democracy this cycle.
In a post-election analysis, we will celebrate the wins, but we must also look closely at the challenges of this cycle. An intersectional approach to analyzing the election should look beyond turnout numbers. It should consider factors such as disparities in campaign resources, media narratives that marginalize Black women candidates, and policy priorities that neglect the distinct needs of Black women and our families. These topics and others have been highlighted in our reports in partnership with CAWP, “Black Women in American Politics.”
Post-election, it is crucial to assess the immediate results and how these outcomes impact the broader political landscape for Black women — from policymaking to resource allocation. This assessment can serve as a call for continued investment in building networks, support structures, and opportunities that empower Black women to lead and thrive in all levels of government.
Black women indicate that strengthening the VRA is necessary to ensure the continuation of American democracy.
Nadia E. Brown
Professor of Government and Chair of the Women’s and Gender Studies Program, Georgetown University and Contributor to The Kamala Harris Project
Christine M. Slaughter
Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boston University
In the lead-up to the 2024 election cycle, our research indicates that Black women are concerned about the health of American democracy. This is highlighted by recent claims by former top aides that President Trump would govern as an autocrat or fascist. While a majority of Americans believe that democracy is under threat, Black women are particularly anxious about voter suppression.
Older Black women, specifically, view threats to the Voter Rights Act (VRA) and tactics to reduce access to the ballot as threats to democracy. While older Black women, more so than their younger counterparts, strongly believe that the VRA is necessary, over 70% of Black women feel this way as compared with 56% of Black men. The gender gap in public opinion may be rooted in Black women’s positionality within American democracy which marginalizes them based on both racist and sexist structures. Black women who have lived through disenfranchisement or who have direct memory of ancestors who were denied the vote, leads them to have deep-rooted concerns regarding the health of American democracy.
Overall, we find that Black women are troubled about voter suppression. Historians have documented the efforts of Black women throughout the Jim Crow era, and political scientists have shown that modern-day Black women prioritize electoral participation as a key component of racial uplift. Voting access is a primary way that Black women promote social justice, gender equity, and human rights, as necessary for ending racial discrimination. As such, Black women in our study indicate that strengthening the VRA is necessary to ensure the continuation of American democracy.
What will the consequences of this election be for Democratic Party politics?
Christina M. Greer
Associate Professor, Political Science, Fordham University (Lincoln Center) and Contributor to The Kamala Harris Project
Whether VP Kamala Harris is successful in November 2024, the effects of this election will be felt for generations to come. As Black women continue to be the most stalwart keepers of the Democratic Party and democracy writ large, it remains to be seen whether or not Black men are slowly defecting from the party. It is also unclear if white women will decide to embrace the Democratic party, something they have not traditionally done in presidential elections. Will white women vote for the Democratic party in the short term for this election cycle due to reproductive rights on the ballot or will they forge a more long-standing relationship with the party? If 1992 was the “Year of the Woman” when a record number of women were elected to Congress, what exactly will 2024 unveil?
What will it mean for women to be the face of the Democratic Party?
Cynthia Richie Terrell
Executive Director and Founder, RepresentWomen
Our goal at RepresentWomen is parity for women in government, which we see as measured by the equal likelihood of an American’s elected representatives to be a woman or man over time. After decades of intentional actions involving training, recruitment, and campaign funding, Democrats may effectively reach parity this election. Kamala Harris may become our first-ever woman president, and women may surpass being half of Democratic state legislators – with no signs of that growth slowing. Along with persistent and even potentially larger gender differences in voting, the de facto reality is that women could be the face of one major party and men the face of the other.
I see opportunities in this change. Republicans will have greater incentives to intentionally create more level playing fields for women candidates through structural electoral reforms, like ranked choice voting, and other actions so effectively waged on behalf of Democratic women. Among Democrats, women leaders have an exciting opportunity to review and revise the norms for governance. This includes making changes in legislative practices designed to incentivize more cooperation and listening, as well as putting in place family-friendly procedural changes like virtual committee meetings, revised expectations for work hours, and protections for elected officials from online abuse and threats of violence.
Harris cannot escape gendered and racialized lenses as a candidate.
Jennifer M. Piscopo
Professor of Politics and Gender, Royal Holloway University of London
Democratic nominee Kamala Harris carries the weight of being a “first.” When members of an underrepresented group shatter a glass ceiling, their successes and failures become attributed not to their own individual strengths and weaknesses, but to their group’s capacity to lead.
The double standards are evident in the campaign. The media criticizes Harris’ alleged lack of policy details while coherently summarizing Republican nominee Donald Trump’s rambling, garbled speeches (a practice some call “sane-washing”). As CNN commentator Van Jones summarized, “She [Harris] has to be flawless while he [Trump] gets to be lawless.”
Should Harris become the first woman and first woman of color president, the judgments will be even more exacting. Academic studies show that women leaders face harsher evaluations than men, even for similar missteps. The same pattern emerges for people of color. While in office, President Barack Obama’s infamous “latte salute” to Marines stirred controversy, especially among the military. Meanwhile, Trump’s routine refusal to honor military heroism has not diminished his support among veterans.
Harris cannot escape these gendered and racialized lenses. Whether she wins or loses on November 5, her performance affects not just her own legacy, but the future political opportunities awarded to women and women of color.
This year’s election provides important insights to the role of women as fundraisers and donors.
Kira Sanbonmatsu
Professor of Political Science and Senior Scholar, CAWP
As the election results come in and the final campaign finance reports are tallied, we’ll be watching to see if women and men had access to the same campaign resources. We’ve been conducting CAWP’s 2024 Women, Money, & Politics Watch to understand women’s status as fundraisers and donors in congressional and state elections. Meanwhile, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ historic fundraising for her presidential campaign, we’ll be watching to see if there’s a lasting impact of the new donors she mobilized. Her fundraising prowess disrupts the idea that women of color candidates lag in the money race and shows that diverse candidates can mobilize a donor pool that is more reflective of the people.
To truly understand the political progress women are making, we must be careful to look at voter data holistically, up and down the ballot, and across time.
Erin Vilardi
Founder and CEO, Vote Run Lead Action
We are less than one week away from a complex election with a lot at stake: our first presidential election after the fall of Roe v. Wade, in which many women will be reacting to the loss of a fundamental right. Pollsters will undoubtedly be pouring over how different demographic groups voted, with particular scrutiny over whether men supported Kamala Harris. Many may attempt to craft a reactionary narrative on how much racism, sexism, and misogyny did or did not play a role in the election based on a few select data points. To truly understand the political progress women are making, we must be careful to look at voter data holistically, up and down the ballot, and across time. The long-term trends reveal that young women are moving towards the left, more women are running for office than ever before, and women are voting at higher rates than men.
Regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, will the number of women who voted outpace men, as it has for the last six decades? Will any state legislatures flip to be a women’s majority this cycle? And what will be the demographic voter breakdown in states with abortion ballot measures? The answer to these questions will help fill in a much more complete picture of how gender has impacted the elections.
Issues like reproductive rights and abortion access have gained a sense of moral clarity and urgency in this election cycle.
A'shanti F. Gholar
President, Emerge
With a woman at the top of the ticket and many more down ballot, issues like reproductive rights and abortion access have gained a sense of moral clarity and urgency in this election cycle. Many voters are angry that right-wing lawmakers and Donald Trump’s Supreme Court have taken away abortion rights and access, putting women’s lives on the line and jeopardizing families in the process as fewer women have access to any type of reproductive healthcare. Not only are women’s rights on the ballot, women’s lives are on the ballot – and they are a huge factor in how so many are voting, not just for elected offices but on ballot initiatives as well. As we begin to make sense of the results and see whether our fellow Americans “take our lives seriously” (as Michelle Obama said) in the days and weeks following Election Day, we can’t lose sight of how personal these issues are to Americans, regardless of their own gender, and how they swung the vote, particularly in battleground states like Arizona and Nevada.
Pay attention to the intersectional dynamics of split-ticket voting and responses to Harris’ reactions to rally protestors.
Ange-Marie Hancock
Executive Director, Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race & Ethnicity and ENGIE-Axium Endowed Professor, Political Science, Ohio State University and Curator of The Kamala Harris Project
There are two main things I am looking at in this year's election. First, I will be paying attention to the intersectional dynamics of split-ticket voting, particularly in states with either abortion amendments or close U.S. Senate races. The second thing I am paying attention to is how those who have been sympathetic to the protests at Harris rallies have responded to the different ways she has evolved in her responses to them. There are likely intersectional dynamics in the perceptions of those responses.
A powerful new wave of California women are set to transform the face of our national politics for generations to come.
Susannah Delano
Executive Director, Close the Gap California
Oakland native Vice President Kamala Harris’ groundbreaking presidential candidacy is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the powerful new wave of California women getting set to transform the face of our national politics for generations to come.
Down ballot in California, we expect to see new historic highs in diverse women’s representation, including an all-but-guaranteed female majority in the California Senate. A strong majority of California Senate women will be women of color, largely from Southern and Central California. Women have made progress throughout the state; across chambers, the number of women legislators in the Bay Area has tripled since 2021.
State legislatures are the single most reliable stepping stone to the U.S. Congress, so these milestones at the state level portend continued impact from the Golden State to Washington D.C.
Unprecedented investment in candidate recruitment, training, and support over the past two decades by women’s groups with California roots is making racially reflective women's leadership the new normal up and down the ballot in an increasing number of political venues across the nation.
What will 2025 bring for women's representation in the Commonwealth of Virginia?
Rosalyn Cooperman
Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science & International Affairs, University of Mary Washington
Even as the 2024 U.S. congressional and presidential elections are not yet in the books, I am turning my attention to Virginia and women's representation in it at the federal and state level. In 2024, Virginia had four of its eleven congressional seats occupied by women – three Democrats in Virginia’s 4th (Jennifer McClellan), 7th (Abigail Spanberger), and 10th Congressional Districts (Jennifer Wexton), and one Republican in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District (Jen Kiggans). Virginia's congressional delegation will be down two women as Representatives Abigail Spanberger (VA-7) and Jennifer Wexton (VA-10) are each retiring, with Spanberger running for Governor in 2025, and only men are running in the general election in the two districts for the open seats. In the House, Representative Spanberger served on the Select Intelligence Committee and Agriculture Committee; Representative Wexton served on the Appropriations and Budget committees. Their respective departures from the House and service on these committees is a loss to the constituents in their districts.
Virginia is one of a few states with off-year elections for statewide and state legislature offices. Gender will again be on the ballot in Virginia in 2025 as Spanberger, a Democrat, is running against Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears, a Republican. Each candidate is seeking to become the first woman elected governor in Virginia. Two other Democratic women, state Senator Gazala Hashmi and Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney, Shannon Taylor, will seek the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, respectively. Pro-choice advocates are also starting the process of amending the Virginia Constitution to ensure reproductive rights by introducing an amendment in the Virginia General Assembly's 2025 session.
How might the U.S. Senate’s partisan and demographic make-up impact a President Harris’ ability to govern?
Michele L. Swers
Professor of American Government, Georgetown University
If Harris wins, she will likely face a divided Congress with the Senate controlled by Republicans and either Republicans or Democrats controlling the House by the thinnest of margins. In addition to the shift in party control, the new Senate could become more racially diverse with the likely election of Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD). This would mark the first time there are two Black women in the Senate. Each has a relationship with Vice President Harris, particularly Alsobrooks, and could become important allies. Senators, even freshman, can play a pivotal role in policy development.
As I show in my book, Women in the Club, senators have expansive influence. With multiple committee assignments and the ability to use prerogatives like placing holds on nominations and legislation to force action on their priorities, senators both represent the broad variety of interests in their states and pursue policy informed by their individual identities and backgrounds. Indeed, during Harris’ two terms in the Senate, she championed policies to help women and minorities including bills to expand benefits for domestic workers (jobs dominated by low-income minority women) and address maternal mortality and the racial disparities in women’s health care. Two bills cosponsored with Republican Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) sought to address workplace sexual harassment.
If Harris wants to achieve the caregiving policies she champions on the trail, she will need to reach out to Republicans. One potential partner might be Deb Fischer (R-NE) who added a tax credit for employers who offer paid family leave to President Trump’s signature tax reform law. With that law now up for reauthorization, Fischer and Independent Angus King (ME) have introduced legislation to expand and make this credit permanent. With Harris looking to provide supports for working families, forging relationships with key Democratic and Republican women senators will help build the path to policy change.
How will the Congressional Black Caucus continue its representation of Black Americans in the aftermath of this election?
Nadia E. Brown
Professor of Government and Chair of the Women’s and Gender Studies Program, Georgetown University and Contributor to The Kamala Harris Project
Christopher J. Clark
Associate Professor of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Anna Mahoney
Executive Director of the Rockefeller Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences, Dartmouth College
Periloux Peay
Assistant Professor, African American Studies, University of Maryland
Michael G. Strawbridge
Assistant Professor of Political Science, Washington University in St. Louis
The outcome of the presidential election has significant implications for all Americans. However, given the rise in racial inequality and animus, paying attention to how Black lawmakers respond to either a President Trump or President Harris offers deep insights into how Black communities will fare in the next four years – and potentially beyond. One potential consideration is how the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) will continue its representation of Black Americans.
Our research on the role of congresswomen in the CBC demonstrates their priority to use an intersectional lens to represent Black communities. Black women members of the CBC have led the organization in uniquely gendered ways over the 50 years of its existence. We can safely assume that the next chair of the CBC will be a woman given the gendered leadership rotation and with Yvette Clarke (D-NY) as the current vice chair. If she is not tapped for the administration, she may fill the top spot.
With the potential election of the first Black woman president, we could expect that the chairwoman of the CBC will pay deference to Kamala Harris while holding her accountable to the caucus’ agenda. Using Obama’s presidency as an example, the CBC under the leadership of Chairwoman Barbara Lee (D-CA) both privately and publicly chastised him on the Administration’s handling of the war in Afghanistan as well as the high rates of Black unemployment.
Alternatively, with a second Trump Administration, the focus would undoubtedly turn to defense, with the CBC slowing down or watering down the impact of legislation advanced by a potentially unified Republican government. A second Trump presidency may be similar to the 104th Congress during which Speaker Newt Gringrich effectively dismembered all caucuses. This forced Maxine Waters (D-CA) to revitalize the CBC with 501(c)(3) status to sidestep the new restrictions and establish the stronger organization we recognize today.
These alternative futures are very different and illustrate the incredibly high stakes for this election.
For more insights on how gender and race are at play in the 2024 election, see CAWP’s social media. In addition, see CAWP’s October 2024 Black Women’s Politics Research Spotlight. Our August 2024 Expert Insights on gender and intersectional dynamics in the presidential election and down ballot races is available here, and reactions to the Harris-Trump Presidential Debate in September 2024 here.
For additional context and data on gender and the 2024 election, see CAWP's Election Watch. CAWP's post-election reports from previous cycles are also available here. In addition, see expert contributions to CAWP analyses from elections 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
