Ocasio-Cortez Scores a Major Win in New York, But Few Other Gains Likely for Women Across Four Primary States (CO, MD, NY, OK)

Four primaries were held on Tuesday in Colorado, Maryland, New York, and Oklahoma. In Utah, only candidates forced into a primary after convention nominations – all men – competed. In South Carolina, both women candidates in U.S. House runoff contests were defeated, and there were no women candidates in runoff contests held in Mississippi.

The calculations below are limited to Colorado, Maryland, New York, and Oklahoma.

Among the most notable results for women:

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14) defeated an incumbent of her own party and is likely to win this fall. Ocasio-Cortez would become just the second Latina to represent New York in Congress. She is also the third non-incumbent Latina to win a Democratic nomination in a safely Democratic district in 2018, signaling potential gains in Latinas congressional representation next year. Just nine Latinas currently serve as U.S. Representatives, and only 12 Latinas have ever been U.S. Representatives.
• No other non-incumbent women nominees for the U.S. House are running in districts that favor their parties, including in Maryland and Oklahoma – whose congressional delegations are likely to remain all-male in 2019.
• All 4 (4D) women who ran for governor in 3 states (Colorado, Maryland, and Oklahoma), were defeated.[1] In Colorado and Maryland, where no woman has ever served as governor, 3 (3D) women primary candidates were defeated.
• Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will face a woman challenger (Chele Farley) in November. Gillibrand defeated another Republican woman – Wendy Long – in 2016.

US House

• 21 (14D, 7R) of 49 (42.9%) women candidates for the U.S. House in CO, MD, NY, and OK won their primary bids for office on June 26th, another 3 (3D) women advanced to runoff elections for their party’s nomination, and 1 (1D) woman is in a race that is too close to call as of Wednesday morning.
  • 14 of 40 (35%) Democratic women and 7 of 9 (77.8%) Republican women candidates for the U.S. House won nominations, and 3 more Democratic women advanced to runoff elections.
• Women are 24 of 90 (26.7%) of the major party candidates who advanced (either winning nomination or advancing to a runoff) in U.S. House races from these states as of Wednesday morning, including 17 of 50 (34%) Democrats and 7 of 40 (17.5%) Republicans. 3 House contests remain too close to call as of Wednesday morning.
  • All 9 (7D, 2R) women incumbents advanced to the general election for re-election in Colorado and New York; all but one – Claudia Tenney (R, NY-22) – will run in districts where they are strongly favored for re-election. Tenney’s race is currently rated as a toss-up by Cook Political Report.
  • 10 (6D, 4R) women nominees will run as challengers to incumbents, with 10 of 10 running in districts that favor their opponents.
  • 1 (1D) woman – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14) – defeated an incumbent of her own party and is likely to win this fall.
  • 1 (1R) woman nominee – Amie Hoeber (R, MD-06) – will compete in an open seat contest that strongly favors her opponent.
  • 3 (3D) women will advance to runoff contests to become general election nominees, with each seeking Democratic nominations in solidly Republican districts.
• Of the 21 women nominees for the U.S. House in CO, MD, NY, and OK, 7 (33.3%) are women of color. They include: 4 (2D, 2R) Black women; 2 (2D) Latinas; and 1 (1D) Asian woman.
  • Of the 12 non-incumbent women nominees for the U.S. House in CO, MD, NY, and OK, 4 (33.3%) are women of color. They include 3 (1D, 2R) Black women and 1 (1D) Latina.
• Across these 4 states there will be 1 woman v. woman contest for the U.S. House in New York’s 21st congressional district, where incumbent Representative Elise Stefanik (R) will be challenged by Tedra Cobb (D).

US Senate

• Just 7 (5D, 2R) women competed for U.S. Senate on June 26th in Maryland and New York, including incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). Gillibrand was uncontested in her primary and will run for re-election this fall in a race in which she is strongly favored against another woman – Chele Farley – who ran uncontested for the Republican nomination. 5 (4D, 1R) women candidates were defeated in their bids for the U.S. Senate on Tuesday.

Statewide Elected Executive Office (including Governor)

• All 4 (4D) women who ran for governor in 3 states (Colorado, Maryland, and Oklahoma), were defeated.[2] In Colorado and Maryland, where no woman has ever served as governor, 3 (3D) women primary candidates were defeated.
• Of the 20 (11D, 9R) women who competed for statewide elected executive offices other than governor in 3 states (CO, MD, and OK), 10 (4D, 6R) (50%) advanced to the general election or to a runoff. Three (2D, 1R) women are in races that are too close to call as of Wednesday morning.
• 3 of 8 (37.5%) women candidates for statewide executive office across these states are women of color: : in Oklahoma, Ashley McCray, who is Native American, is in the Democratic runoff for, and Kimberly Fobbs, who is Black, is the Democratic nominee for Insurance Commissioner. In Maryland, Anjali Reed Phukan, who is Asian, is the Republican nominee for Comptroller. In the Democratic race for Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma – which is still too close too call, Anastasia Pittman, who identifies as Black and Native American, is in the lead.

Colorado

U.S. House

Women are 4 of 14 (28.6%) major party nominees for U.S. House in Colorado, including 0 of 7 (0%) Republicans and 4 of 7 (57.1%) Democrats. 1 (1D) woman House candidates was unsuccessful in her primary challenge to incumbent Representative Diana DeGette (D).

• Incumbent Representative Diana DeGette secured the Democratic nomination for re-election in the 1^st congressional district.
• 3 (3D) women nominees will challenge Republican incumbents in districts currently rated as solidly Republican by Cook Political Report.

1 of 4 (25%) women U.S. House nominees in Colorado are women of color: Stephany Rose Spaulding (D), who is Black, is challenging Republican incumbent Doug Lamborn in the 5th congressional district.

Statewide Elected Executive Office (including Governor)

Women currently hold 2 (1D, 1R) of 5 statewide elected executive offices in Colorado and Colorado has never elected a woman governor.

This year, just 1 of 8 (12.5%) major party nominees for statewide executive offices in Colorado is a woman. Jena Griswold ran uncontested for the Democratic nomination for Secretary of State. She will challenge Republican incumbent Wayne Williams. 3 (2D, 1R) women were defeated in their primary bids, including both (2D) women candidates for Colorado’s open gubernatorial office.

Maryland

U.S. House

Maryland is currently one of 11 states with no women in Congress and that appears unlikely to change in 2019. Of the 2 (2R) women candidates that won major party nominations for the U.S. House in Maryland, each are running in districts that strongly favor their opponents.

Women are 2 of 16 (12.5%) major party nominees for U.S. House in Maryland, including 2 of 8 (25%) Republicans and 0 of 8 (0%) Democrats. 6 (4D, 2R) women House candidates were unsuccessful.

• Amie Hoeber (MD-06) will compete in an open seat contest that strongly favors her opponent.
• Liz Matory (MD-02) will challenge Democratic Incumbent Representative Dutch Ruppersberger in a district currently rated as solidly Democratic by Cook Political Report.

Liz Matory, who is Black, is the only woman of color nominee for the U.S. House nominees in Maryland.

U.S. Senate

All 5 (4D, 1R) women candidates for the U.S. Senate in Maryland were defeated on June 26th. Just one woman – Senator Barbara Mikulski (D) – has represented Maryland in the U.S. Senate.

Statewide Elected Executive Office (including Governor)

Women currently hold 0 of 4 statewide elected executive offices in Maryland and Maryland has never elected a woman governor.

This year, women are 2 of 8 (25%) major party nominees for statewide executive offices in Maryland, including 1 of 4 (25%) Democrats and 1 of 4 (25%) Republicans. 6 (6D) women were defeated in their primary bids, including the only woman candidate who competed for Maryland’s open gubernatorial office.

The 2 (1D, 1R) women nominees for statewide executive office in Maryland include:

• Anjali Reed Phukan (R), who ran uncontested in the Republican primary to challenge Democratic incumbent Comptroller Peter Franchot; and
• Susie Turnbull (D), who is the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor.

Anjali Reed Phukan, who identifies as Asian, would be the first woman of color elected statewide in Maryland.

New York

U.S. House

Women are 15 of 47 (31.9%) major party nominees for U.S. House in New York, including 5 of 21 (23.8%) Republicans and 10 of 26 (38.5%) Democrats. One race, with 1 (1D) woman candidate, remains too close to call. 11 (11D) women House candidates were unsuccessful.

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14) defeated an incumbent of her own party and is likely to win this fall. Ocasio-Cortez would become just the second Latina to represent New York in Congress. She is also the third non-incumbent Latina to win a Democratic nomination in a safely Democratic district in 2018, signaling potential gains in Latinas congressional representation next year. Just nine Latinas currently serve as U.S. Representatives, and only 12 Latinas have ever been U.S. Representatives.
• All 8 (6D, 2R) women incumbents advanced to the general election for re-election; all but one – Claudia Tenney (R, NY-22) – will run in districts where they are strongly favored for re-election. Tenney’s race is currently rated as a toss-up by Cook Political Report.
• 6 (3D, 3R) women nominees will run as challengers to incumbents in districts that favor their opponents.

5 of 15 (33.3%) women U.S. House nominees, including 2 of 7 (28.6%) of non-incumbent women nominees, in New York are women of color: 2 (1D, 1R) are Black, 2 (2D) are Latina, and 1 (1D) is Asian.

U.S. Senate

Both (1D, 1R) women candidates for the U.S. Senate in New York ran unopposed, setting up a woman v. woman Senate contest this fall. Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who is the second woman senator from New York, is strongly favored to win re-election this fall. No Republican woman has ever served as U.S. Senator from New York.

Statewide Elected Executive Office (including Governor)

New York will hold its primaries for state-level offices in September 2018.

Oklahoma

U.S. House

Oklahoma is currently one of 11 states with no women in Congress and that appears unlikely to change in 2019. Of the 3 (3D) women candidates that advanced to runoff contests for the U.S. House in Oklahoma, each are running in districts that strongly favor Republicans. 6 (6D) women House candidates were defeated on June 26th and no Republican women ran for the U.S. House in Oklahoma this year.

Of the 3 women candidates to advance, 1 – Amanda Douglas  (D, OK-01) –  identifies as Native American and White.

Statewide Elected Executive Office (including Governor)

Women currently hold 4 (4R) of 11 statewide elected executive offices in Oklahoma, including governor.

This year, 1 (1D) woman has already won a major party nomination for statewide executive office in Oklahoma and 6 (1D, 5R) have advanced to runoff contests. 3 (2D, 1R) more women are in races that are too close to call as of Wednesday morning. 2 (1D, 1R) women were defeated in their primary bids, including the only woman candidate for Oklahoma’s open gubernatorial office.

Kimberly Fobbs, the Democratic nominee for Insurance Commissioner, is Black.

Utah Primary and Runoffs in Mississippi and South Carolina

In Utah, Jenny Wilson secured the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate and 2 (1R, 1D) more women secured major party nominations for the U.S. House through their party’s conventions ahead of Tuesday’s primary elections. Neither Democratic woman nominee is favored to win and incumbent Republican Representative Mia Love’s (UT-04) contest is currently rated as leaning Republican by Cook Political Report.

In South Carolina, both women competing in runoff contests for Democratic nominations for the U.S. House were defeated.

In Mississippi, no women competed in runoff contests on June 26th.

[1] Valerie Ervin (D-MD) withdrew from Maryland’s gubernatorial race before Election Day, though she remained on the state’s list of certified candidates. She is not included in these counts.

[2] ibid