Early Results for Women from June 23rd Primary Elections

CAWP Staff

Congressional and statewide primaries were held on Tuesday in three states: Kentucky, New York, and Virginia. Runoff congressional elections were also held in North Carolina and Mississippi. Due to the reliance on mail-in voting, many races remain too close to call, so this post will be updated as results are determined. Full context about women in the 2020 elections, including candidate lists, summaries, results from previous primaries, and historical comparisons, are available via the Center for American Women and Politics’ Election Watch page.

Among the most notable results for women thus far:

  • Two of three of Virginia’s women representatives to the U.S. House – Representatives Elaine Luria (D) and Abigail Spanberger (D) – will run in competitive contests in November to defend the seats they first won in 2018. The third incumbent – Representative Jennifer Wexton (D) – will be challenged by another woman – Aliscia Andrews (R) – in a general election contest currently favoring Wexton.
  • While at least one woman will be a U.S. House nominee in Kentucky this year, no women are favored to win in November. Kentucky has not had a woman serve in the U.S. House since 2007. Amy McGrath (D) will challenge incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell (R) in November; she would be the first woman in the U.S. Senate from Kentucky. 
  • Lynda Bennett (R), who was endorsed by President Trump and former Representative Mark Meadows, was defeated in the Republican primary runoff in North Carolina’s 11th congressional district. This would have been a likely pick-up for Republican women.
  • 16 (9D, 7R) women have already secured major-party nominations in New York’s U.S. House races, including 6 (5D, 1R) of the 7 (6D, 1R) incumbent women representatives running for re-election this year (Representative Nita Lowey is not running for re-election). There will be at least one all-woman contest in New York’s congressional elections this fall, a rematch from 2018 between Representative Elise Stefanik (R) and Tedra Cobb (D) in New York’s 21st congressional district. Former Representative Claudia Tenney (R) will also run to reclaim her seat in New York’s 22nd congressional district.

Kentucky

New York

Virginia

North Carolina

 

Kentucky

U.S. Senate

Amy McGrath (D) won in the Democratic nomination to challenge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) this November. This U.S. Senate contest is currently rated as "Lean Republican" by Cook Political Report. No woman has ever served in the U.S. Senate from Kentucky.

McGrath (D) was the Democratic nominee for Kentucky’s 6th congressional district in 2018. She lost by 3.2 points to incumbent Representative Andy Barr (R).

U.S. House

There are no women in Kentucky’s six-member U.S. House delegation. No woman has served in the U.S. House from Kentucky since 2007. 

As of July 10th, women are 1 of 11 (9.1%) major-party nominees already selected for U.S. House in Kentucky, including 1 of 6 (16.7%) Democrats and 0 of 5 (0%) Republicans. 1 (1R) woman candidate remains in a race still too close to call. Thus far, 2 (1D, 1R) women House candidates were unsuccessful in their primary bids for the U.S. House.

  • Alexandra Owensby (D) won the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent Representative Thomas Massie (R) in Kentucky's 4th congressional district. This contest currently rated as “Solid Republican” by Cook Political Report.

 

New York

U.S. House

Women are currently 8 (7D, 1R) of 27 members of the New York delegation to the U.S. House (29.6%).

As of July 10th, women are 16 (9D, 7R) of 45 (35.6%) major-party nominees already selected for U.S. House in New York, including 9 of 22 (40.9%) Democrats and 7 of 23 (30.4%) Republicans. 15 (12D, 3R) women candidates are in races still too close to call in 6 party primaries in 5 congressional districts. Thus far, 9 (7D, 2R) women House candidates were unsuccessful in their primary bids for the U.S. House.

  • 7 (6D, 1R) of 8 incumbent women House members from New York are running for re-election. Representative Nita Lowey (D) is not running for re-election. She has served in the U.S. House since 1989.
    • 2 (1D, 1R) incumbent women were unopposed in the primary: Kathleen Rice (D, NY-04) and Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21). Stefanik will be challenged in November by Democratic nominee Tedra Cobb (D) in an all-woman contest.
    • 4 (4D) more incumbent women have won their primaries: Yvette Clarke (D, NY-09), Grace Meng (D, NY-06), Nydia Velazquez (D, NY-07), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14).
    • 1 (1D) incumbent woman – Carolyn Maloney (D, NY-12) – remain in a contest that is too close to call.
  • 1 (1D) woman - Jackie Gordon - has been nominated in the open U.S. House seat in New York's 2nd congressional district, currently held by Representative Peter King (R). King is not running for re-election. This race is currently rated as “Lean Republican” by Cook Political Report.
    • 10 (8D, 2R) women in total remain in open-seat contests that are too close to call.
  • At least 9 (3D, 6R) women will run as challengers to incumbents in November. 5 (3D, 2R) women challengers remain in contests that are too close to call.
    • Former Representative Claudia Tenney (R), who served one term in the U.S. House from 2017-2019, will run to reclaim her seat in New York’s 22nd congressional district. Tenney lost to current Representative Anthony Brindisi (D) by 1.8 points in 2018. This race is currently rated as a toss-up by Cook Political Report.
    • Dana Balter will challenge incumbent Representative John Katko (R) New York's 24th congressional district. Balter lost to Katko in 2018 by 5.2 points. This race is currently rated as “Likely Republican” by Cook Political Report.
    • 6 (2D, 4D) women candidates were unopposed in the primary and are challenging incumbents in general election contests that favor their opponents.
      • Cathy Bernstein (R) was unopposed in the Republican primary to challenge incumbent Representative Jerry Nadler (D) in New York’s 10th congressional district. This contest is currently rated as “Solid Democratic” by Cook Political Report.
      • Lovelynn Gwinn (R) was unopposed in the Republican primary to challenge incumbent Representative Adriano Espaillat (D) in New York’s 13th congressional district. This contest is currently rated as “Solid Democratic” by Cook Political Report.
      • Chele Farley (R) was unopposed in the Republican primary to challenge incumbent Representative Sean Patrick Maloney (D) in New York’s 18th congressional district. This contest is currently rated as “Likely Democratic” by Cook Political Report.
      • Elizabeth Joy (R) was unopposed in the Republican primary to challenge incumbent Representative Paul Tonko (D) in New York’s 20th congressional district. This contest is currently rated as “Solid Democratic” by Cook Political Report.
      • Tedra Cobb (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary to challenge incumbent Representative Elise Stefanik (R) in New York’s 21st congressional district. She was the Democratic nominee in 2018 and lost to Stefanik by 13.7 points. This contest is currently rated as “Solid Republican” by Cook Political Report.
      • Tracy Mitrano (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary to challenge incumbent Representative Tom Reed (R) in New York’s 23rd congressional district. She was the Democratic nominee in 2018 and lost to Reed by 8.4 points. This race is currently rated as “Solid Republican” by Cook Political Report.

Of the 16 (9D, 7R) women who are already selected as major-party nominees for the U.S. House from New York, 7 (5D, 2R) are women of color, including 2 (2D) Latinas and 2 (1D, 1R) Asian American women, 2 (2D) Black women, and 1 (1R) woman who identifies as multiracial (Latina and White). 

 

Virginia

U.S. Senate

On Tuesday, three candidates ran in the Republican primary to challenge incumbent Senator Mark Warner (D) in November. Alissa Baldwin – the only woman to run for the U.S. Senate in Virginia this year – was unsuccessful in her bid for the Republican nomination. No woman has ever served in the U.S. Senate from Virginia.

U.S. House

Currently, women are 3 (3D) of 11 members of the Virginia delegation to the U.S. House (27.3%).

Women are 5 (3D, 2R) of 20 (25%) major-party nominees already selected for U.S. House in Virginia, including 3 of 9 (33.3%) Democrats and 2 of 1 (18.2%) Republicans. 4 (4D) women candidates were unsuccessful in their primary bids for the U.S. House. 

  • All (3D) incumbent women, who are each in their first terms in Congress, were unopposed in bids for their party’s nomination.
    • 2 (2D) incumbent women – Representatives Elaine Luria (VA-02) and Abigail Spanberger (VA-07) – are in contests currently deemed toss-ups by Cook Political Report.
    • Representative Jennifer Wexton (D) will be challenged by Republican nominee Aliscia Andrews in Virginia’s 10th congressional district. This all-woman contest is currently rated “Likely Democratic” by Cook Political Report.
  • 2 (2R) women will run as challengers to incumbents in November. Both were selected via party conventions.
    • Aliscia Andrews (R) will challenge incumbent Representative Jennifer Wexton (D) in Virginia’s 10th congressional district. This all-woman contest is currently rated “Likely Democratic” by Cook Political Report.
    • Manga Anantatmula will challenge incumbent Representative Gerry Connolly (D) in Virginia’s 11th congressional district. This contest is currently rated as “Solid Democratic” by Cook Political Report. If elected, Anantatmula – who is Indian American – would be the first woman of color to represent Virginia in Congress.

 

North Carolina

One woman – Lynda Bennett – ran in the runoff Republican primary election in North Carolina’s 11th congressional district. Despite endorsements from former Representative Mark Meadows (R), who held the seat until March 2020, and President Donald Trump, she was defeated by Madison Cawthorn.

With the runoff elections complete, women are 7 of 26 (26.9%) major-party nominees for the U.S. House in North Carolina, including 5 of 13 (38.5%) Democratic nominees and 2 of 13 (15.4%) Republican nominees.

CAWP Staff