Arizona Will Send its First Woman to the Senate While a Major Milestone for Women in Florida Will Have to Wait

From March to December 2018, the Barbara Lee Family Foundation (BLFF) and the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) partnered to offer Gender Watch 2018, which tracked, analyzed, and illuminated gender dynamics in the 2018 midterm elections. With the help of expert scholars and practitioners, Gender Watch 2018 furthered public understanding of how gender influences candidate strategy, voter engagement and expectations, media coverage, and electoral outcomes in campaigns. The blog below was written for Gender Watch 2018, as part of our collective effort to raise questions, suggest answers, and complicate popular discussions about gender’s role U.S. elections.

Two primaries were held on Tuesday in Arizona and Florida, in addition to runoff primary contests in Oklahoma. Full results, including candidate lists, summaries, and historical comparisons, are available via the Center for American Women and Politics’ (CAWP) Election Watch page.

Among the most notable results for women:

U.S. Senate

• Arizona is currently one of 20 states that has never had a woman senator. In selecting women as both major-party nominees (Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema), Arizona is all but guaranteed to send its first woman to the U.S. Senate in 2019. There are now 6 all-female U.S. Senate contests already slated for November’s general election, according to CAWP.
• No women competed in Florida’s U.S. Senate race.

U.S. House

• All 7 (6D, 1R) women House incumbents who competed in Tuesday’s Arizona and Florida primaries advanced to the general election and are currently favored to win re-election this fall. Of the 16 (13D, 3R) non-incumbent women already advancing to the general election in these states:
  • 2 (2D) are in House contests that currently favor their party; and
  • 14 (11D, 3R) are running in districts that currently favor their opponents.
• 5 (3D, 2R) more women candidates are competing in 3 Arizona House contests that have yet to called as of Wednesday morning.
• 3 more all-women contests for the U.S. House were added to the current slate of woman versus woman races for November in AZ-02, AZ-08, and FL-27 (the race to replace retiring Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen). According to CAWP, there are now 26 all-women general election contests for the U.S. House in 2018.
• In runoff contests in Oklahoma, 2 (2D) non-incumbent women candidates secured nominations for the U.S. House in contests favoring their opponents this fall.

Statewide Elected Executive Office

• Florida is one of 22 states that has never had a woman governor. That will not change in 2019, after Gwen Graham fell short of winning the Democratic nomination. Just 2 (1D, 1R) women are major-party candidates for other statewide elected executive offices in Florida this fall.
• Arizona’s incumbent Secretary of State Michele Reagan was defeated in the Republican primary and incumbent Superintendent of Public Instruction Diane Douglas (R) is in a race too close to call as of Wednesday morning.
• At least 5 (4D, 1R) non-incumbent women candidates will be on November’s ballots for statewide elected executive offices in Arizona, including 3 (2D, 1R) women of color. Arizona could elect its first Latina (January Contreras, Democratic challenger for attorney general) and first Asian woman (Kimberly Yee, Republican nominee for state treasurer) to statewide office this year. Yee would also be the first Republican woman of color elected statewide in Arizona.
• With the addition of 4 (1D, 3R) nominations after runoffs, women are now 6 of 16 (37.5%) nominees for statewide elected executive offices in Oklahoma’s general election.

Arizona

U.S. Senate

• Current U.S. Representatives Martha McSally (R) and Kyrsten Sinema (D) won both major-party nominations for the U.S. Senate in Arizona, all but guaranteeing that Arizona will send its first woman to the U.S. Senate in 2019. Arizona is currently one of 20 states that has never had a woman senator.
• Including Arizona’s contest, there are now 6 all-female general election U.S. Senate contests in 2018, according to CAWP.

U.S. House

Women are 5 of 14 (35.7%) major-party nominees for U.S. House already selected in Arizona, including 3 of 7 (42.9%) Democrats and 2 of 7 (28.6%) Republicans. At least 6 (3D, 3R) women House candidates were unsuccessful, with another 5 (3D, 2R) women in races that have yet to be called as of Wednesday morning.

• Incumbent Republican Debbie Lesko (R) secured her party’s nomination for re-election. She will be challenged by Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in November, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary race. Lesko defeated Tipirneni the April 2018 special election for Arizona’s 8th congressional district. The other 2 (1D, 1R) incumbent representatives – Martha McSally (R) and Kyrsten Sinema (D) – did not run for re-election; instead, both ran for and won their respective primaries for the U.S. Senate.
• 2 (1D, 1R) women will compete against each other for the open seat in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district: former U.S. Representative Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is slightly favored in her bid to return to the House against Lea Marquez Peterson (R).
• At least one woman will challenge an incumbent House member this fall; as of Wednesday morning, Joan Greene (D) secured the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent Andy Biggs (R) in Arizona’s 5th congressional district. 5 (3D, 2R) more women are in contests for 3 major-party House nominations yet to be called in AZ-01 (R), AZ-04 (D), and AZ-06 (D). Women are leading in both the AZ-01 Republican and AZ-06 Democratic primaries.

Of the 5 nominees already selected for the U.S. House, 2 are women of color, including Democratic nominee (AZ-08) Dr. Hiral Tipirneni, who is South Asian, and Republican nominee (AZ-02) Lea Marquez Peterson, who is Latina. Of the 5 women candidates in contests not yet called, just one is a woman of color: Democrat Anita Malik (AZ-06) is South Asian. Arizona has never sent a woman of color to the U.S. Congress.

Statewide Elected Executive Office (including Governor)

Women currently hold 3 of 11 statewide elected executive offices in Arizona. This year, 5 of 13 (38.5%) major-party nominees for statewide executive offices already selected in Arizona are women, including 4 of 7 (57.1%) Democratic and 1 of 6 (16.7%) Republican nominees. 3 (1D, 2R) women are in contests not yet called as of Wednesday morning.

• Incumbent Secretary of State Michele Reagan (R) was defeated in her primary bid for re-election. Incumbent Superintendent of Public Instruction Diane Douglas (R) is in a primary race that is too close to call as of Wednesday morning. Incumbent State Treasurer Eileen Klein (R), who was appointed in April 2018, did not run for a full term.
• Katie Hobbs was unopposed in her bid for the Democratic nomination for secretary of state. She will take on Republican Steve Gaynor, who defeated incumbent Michele Reagan in the Republican primary.
• January Contreras was unopposed in her bid for the Democratic nomination for attorney general. She will challenge Republican incumbent Attorney General Mark Brnovich this fall.
• Kimberly Yee won the Republican nomination for state treasurer, an open seat this year.
• Kathy Hoffman won the Democratic nomination for superintendent of public instruction.
• Sandra Kennedy won one of 2 Democratic nominations for corporation commissioner. Another woman – Kiana Sears – is still in the running for the remaining spot.

As of Wednesday morning, 3 (1D, 2R) women were defeated in their primary bids for statewide executive office in Arizona, including Kelly Fryer (D), the only woman candidate for governor.

Of the 5 women nominees for statewide executive offices in Arizona, 3 are women of color. If elected, attorney general candidate January Contreras (D) would be the first Latina elected statewide in Arizona. Likewise, state treasurer nominee Kimberly Yee (R) would be the first Asian woman and the first Republican woman of color to hold statewide office in Arizona. Sandra Kennedy, one of the Democratic nominees for corporation commissioner, is the only woman of color that has ever been elected statewide in Arizona. She served as corporation commissioner from 2008 to 2012 and is a nominee again this year.  Of the 3 women candidates in statewide executive contests yet to be called as of Wednesday morning, just one is a woman of color. Kiana Sears, Democratic candidate for corporation commissioner, identifies as Black.

Florida

U.S. House

Women are 18 of 49 (36.7%) major-party nominees for U.S. House in Florida, including 16 of 27 (59.3%) Democrats and 2 of 22 (9.1%) Republicans. 12 (4D, 8R) women House candidates were unsuccessful.

• All 6 (6D) incumbent women candidates won their nominations for re-election, including 4 (4D) who will have no Republican opponent this fall: Val Demings (FL-10), Kathy Castor (FL-14), Lois Frankel (FL-21), and Frederica Wilson (FL-24). The remaining 2 (2D) incumbents are favored to win in November.
• 7 (6D, 1R) women will run as challengers to incumbents in November. All are running in contests that currently favor their opponents, according to Cook Political Report.
• 5 (4D, 1R) women will compete in open seat contests, with one woman all but guaranteed to win. In FL-27, the seat vacated by current Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R), women won both major-party nominations. The contest is currently rated as leaning Democrat in favor of Democratic nominee Donna Shalala. The remaining 3 (3D) open-seat women candidates are running in races that currently favor their opponents.

Of the 18 nominees for the U.S. House, 8 (6D, 2R) are women of color: 4 (3D, 1R) women nominees identify as Black, including incumbent Representatives Frederica Wilson (D) and Val Demings (D); 2 (2D) women nominees identify as Asian, including incumbent Representative Stephanie Murphy (D); and 2 (1D, 1R) women nominees identify as Latina. The only Latina currently representing Florida in Congress – Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) – did not run for re-election this year. 

Statewide Elected Executive Office (including Governor)

Women currently hold 1 of 5 statewide elected executive offices in Florida. This year, 2 of 8 (25%) major party nominees for statewide executive offices in Florida are women, including 1 of 4 (25%) Democratic and 1 of 4 (25%) Republican nominees.

• In the race for attorney general, Republican Ashley Moody will run to replace term-limited Attorney General Pam Bondi (R), who is currently the only woman holding statewide executive office in Florida.
• Democrat Nikki Fried won her party’s nomination for agriculture commissioner, an office that no woman has yet held in Florida.

2 (1D, 1R) women were defeated in their primary bids for statewide executive office in Florida, including gubernatorial candidate Gwen Graham (D), who was running to become the first woman governor of Florida. With her loss, Florida remains one of 22 states that has never had a woman governor.

Oklahoma

U.S. House

In Oklahoma’s runoff contests for the U.S. House, women candidates won Democratic nominations in the 4th and 5th congressional districts, both rated as solidly Republican by Cook Political Report. Women are 2 of 10 (20%) of general election nominees for the U.S. House in Oklahoma, including 2 of 5 (40%) Democratic nominees and 0 of 5 (0%) Republican nominees.

Statewide Elected Executive Office

4 (1D, 3R) women won major-party nominations for statewide executive offices, in addition to the 2 (2D) women candidates who secured nominations for lieutenant governor and insurance commissioner in late June. Women are now 6 of 16 (37.5%) nominees for statewide elected executive offices in Oklahoma’s general election.